Bitcoin All-Time High In March, ‘Bookmark It,’ Predicts Trader: How Much ETFs Need To Buy To Make It Happen
By Benzinga
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trader Fred Krueger doubled down on his prediction that the apex crypto will reach an all-time high before the halving.
On Tuesday, Krueger posted on X, "All time high in march. Bookmark it." Now, a new analysis of the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs on BTC's price backs up his assertion.
What Happened: At $631 million, Feb. 13 marked the largest net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs thus far:
Tuesday was the largest daily net inflow to spot Bitcoin ETFs thus far.
+631M USD pic.twitter.com/BmPAtfqyDJ
— ted (@tedtalksmacro) February 14, 2024
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) alone is closing in on $5 billion in assets under management in only five weeks of trading. ETF Store president Nate Geraci pointed out that many people did not even foresee these inflow volumes for all Bitcoin ETFs combined, let alone in the timespan of five weeks.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that net cumulative flows to spot Bitcoin ETFs achieved the same feat that took the spot gold ETF two years to accomplish. IBIT ranks fourth out of 3,400 ETFs by year-to-date flows, with Fidelity's Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (BATS:FBTC) ranked seventh.
With heavy inflows pushing Bitcoin to over $51,000, does the math check out for Krueger's prediction of an all-time high in March?
Why It Matters: Pseudonymous Bitcoin investor British HODL calculated an approximate multiplier for Bitcoin prices; in other words, to what extent inflows move price.
He estimated that inflows from Monday, Feb.12, which saw Bitcoin surge from $48,313 to $50,333 and increase its market capitalization by $42 billion, would be between $385 million and $530 million. Actual inflows were $495 million — an 85X multiplier:
Amazing application of the "80x" multiplier by @BritishHodl yesterday.
BTC goes up 2,000 –> multiply by 21M = 42 Billion market cap increase –> divide by 80 –> 525 Million flows.
Actual flows were 495.
So the actual multiplier was 85. https://t.co/FwvlX42iVG
— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) February 13, 2024
Cryptocurrency analyst Ted took to X to analyze the price impact since Feb. 5. He calculates the path to an all-time high:
- For every $1 billion of net inflows, Bitcoin price increased by $2,900.
- On average, $265 million USD flowed into the spot ETFs each day during the analyzed timeframe, theoretically causing a +$768 USD increase in BTC price, per day.
- BTC is roughly $20,000 away from an all-time high: 20,000 divided by 768 = 26 days to new ATHs for Bitcoin at the current rate of net inflows.
Chart courtesy of @tedtalksmacro on X
This calculation would align with Krueger's prediction for an all-time high before the halving. However, as Ted points out, it is subject to net inflows into Bitcoin remaining at its current high level.
What's Next: With Bitcoin trading above the $51,000 mark, it is only 26% off its 2021 all-time high.
Photo: Shutterstock
