The cryptocurrency community is holding its breath as the Securities and Exchange Commission processes critical forms submitted by exchanges and issuers, eagerly awaiting a decision that could pave the way for the first U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And one analyst feels the chances of that happening have just increased.

What Happened: Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, has raised his confidence in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) Spot ETF approval from 90% to an even more optimistic 95%. His upgraded view followed fellow analyst James Seyffart outlining possible scenarios in case the SEC rejects the applications.

“What will happen if the 10% plays out? What happens to ARK?” a user on social media asked, referring to Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management, which is among the 14 applicants vying for a Bitcoin ETF proposal to get approval. 

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Recently, Wood suggested that even a modest institutional allocation to Bitcoin could significantly boost its value. She also mentioned the possibility of investors capitalizing on gains leading up to the ETF approval, noting the tendency to “sell on the news.”

Seyffart’s scenarios included ARK withdrawing, regulatory pushback, or intervention by the Biden administration. “1) Ark withdraws with assurances about March (unlikely). 2) Genz goes nuclear & SEC denies using new reasons or ignores the court knowing they’d end up back in court (again–Unlikely). 3) Biden admin comes down and does something to stop this (unlikely),” he said.

Balchunas echoed Seyffart’s sentiments. “Well said, although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things,” he said.

Why It Matters: Industry leaders anticipate the SEC’s decision on Jan. 10 with optimism. While some caution against a “sell-the-news” scenario, reflected in recent altcoin market dips, the overall mood remains positive.

Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $43,543 down 1.00% on Sunday, according to Benzinga Pro.

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