Bitcoin’s Current ‘Fair Value’ At $75,000, Says Mark Yusko: His ‘Definitive Way’ To Calculate Post-Halving Price
By Benzinga
Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Yusko predicts Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will reach approximately $150,000 after the halving, up from his current "fair value" estimation of $75,000.
"We're Nowhere Close To The Speculative Top"
In an appearance on Scott Melker's "Wolf Of All Streets" podcast, Yusko explained that he adjusted his estimation of Bitcoin's fair value upwards from $50,000 to $75,000.
Yusko cited on-chain activity and Bitcoin Ordinals as reasons and pointed to Metacalfe's law as "the definitive way" to calculate the value of any network.
"This bull market that's just getting started," said Yusko, who sees the halving as a catalyst to double Bitcoin's price from his fair value estimation.
"We Are Exactly On Schedule"
Yusko predicted "we go right through fair value" as the halving slices miners rewards, citing a 2.3X multiplier based on historical patterns for a Bitcoin top.
"I think there's less leverage I think we go two times fair value, that's 150 so sometime between Thanksgiving this year and June of the next year," Yusko predicted.
He sees the market crashing again and restarting the cycle after that, with small cap altcoins to decline 90-95% from their peaks while Bitcoin maintains its position as digital gold.
Yusko, who spoke at Benzinga's 2023 Future of Digital Assets event, believes people are selling gold and other hedges to buy into the new Bitcoin ETFs, as the ETFs legitimize cryptocurrency investing for traditional investors.
Yusko On Gary Gensler: "He Looks Sad"
"Gloomy Gary," as Yusko dubbed SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, works for opponents of Bitcoin like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).
According to Yusko, heads of financial regulation agencies have confirmed reports that Hamas was not actually using cryptocurrencies much for fundraising, contradicting claims by Warren and others. He argues disruptive technologies like Bitcoin face resistance from those with the most to lose financially or politically.
The Worst Case Scenario For Bitcoin
Yusko recounted being initially skeptical of Bitcoin due to concerns U.S. intelligence may have created it with a backdoor.
However, an expert friend reassured him this couldn't happen with Bitcoin due to it being air-gapped, but potentially could with Ethereum.
He contends that confiscating Bitcoin could actually benefit the remaining holders by enhancing its scarcity, thereby creating a bullish scenario. If "a third of the Bitcoin disappears, the other two-thirds go up in value," according to Yusko
Bitcoin's Value As An Investment Vehicle
He advocates Bitcoin as the best diversification asset due to its low correlation to other assets like bonds and stocks over the long run.
Yusko also rebuked passive investing as the best way to save for retirement. "If that were such a great system then the average person wouldn't have sub $100,000 in their 401k and have no ability to retire."
The podcast concluded with Yusko and Melker expressing how they enjoy working in the cryptocurrency industry and feeling like they are part of changing the world.
Photo: Shutterstock
