Daily News

FOMC Minutes In Focus

Good Morning Everyone!

Crypto winter has been rough for everyone. Especially Coinbase:

  • Q4 2021: $840m net profit

  • Q4 2022: $557m net loss

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 2/21/23; % YTD

MARKET UPDATE

2 pm: FOMC minutes

  • Market embracing higher-for-longer

  • Federal funds rate expectations ~5.3% in June

    • 4.9% three weeks ago

  • US02Y at November highs

  • US01Y above 5% for first time since 2006

Yesterday was the first day of the year where New Lows > New Highs

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S&P Global flash PMIs

  • Composite output (chart) rose sharply driven by services (both at 8-month highs)

  • Uptick in manufacturing (4-month high)

  • New orders down but pace of contraction decelerating

  • Cost pressures soften but output charges rise

  • Optimism highest since May 2022

Existing home sales

  • Dropped by 0.7%, 12th straight monthly decline

    • Slowest pace since Oct 2010

  • -37% YoY, worst on record

  • Median home price +1.3% YoY

    • Prices fell MoM for 7th straight month

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Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW)

  • Beat on top & bottom lines

  • 3 consecutive Qs of profitability after decade in the red

  • Raised outlook, earnings guidance for 2023

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)

  • Making moves to ease regulator fears over Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) takeover 

  • Signs 10-year contract with Nintendo for Call of Duty

    • CoD will be released same day, same features for Nintendo as Xbox

  • Agrees to bring games to Nvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) GeForce Now Service

    • Nvidia now supports regulatory approval of MSFT/ATVI acquisition

  • EU reviewing deal

  • US FTC has sued to block

Earnings

  • TJX (NYSE:TJX)

  • Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)

  • Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU)

  • eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY)

  • Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY)

  • Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK)

  • Garmin (NYSE:GRMN)

  • iQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ)

  • Charles River Labs (NYSE:CRL)

  • Brink's (NYSE:BCO)

  • NiSource (NYSE:NI)

  • Bausch + Lomb (NYSE:BLCO)

  • Vertiv (NYSE:VRT)

  • Driven Brands (NASDAQ:DRVN)

  • Travel + Leisure (NYSE:TNL)

  • Sinclair (NASDAQ:SBGI)

  • Installed Building Products (NYSE:IBP)

CRYPTO UPDATE

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN)

  • Beat earnings & revenue estimates

  • Userbase is shrinking

  • 8.3 million monthly transacting users in Q4

    • Down from 8.5 million

Polygon Labs layoffs

  • Cutting 20% of workforce (~100 jobs)

  • Consolidating multiple business units

Paxos breaks up with Binance

  • Paxos CEO says ending relationship with Binance

  • Paxos served Wells notice by SEC over BUSD issuance/listing

  • Will Binance also move away from BUSD?

    • Binance has been increasing its USDC holdings

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500

  • 40-day correlation at lowest since 2021

  • Down to <0.3 from record 0.8 in May 2022

Ebbing Tie | Correlation between Bitcoin, S&P 500 stock index around lowest since 2021

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