Stanley Druckenmiller: Crypto Is Pricing In Trump As Election Favorite, But Does Bitcoin’s Surge Coincide With Rising Odds?
By Benzinga
Billionaire investor and former hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller, the chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office on Thursday noted that the market is starting to price Donald Trump winning the 2024 election.
What Happened: Druckenmiller said that while the 2024 election outcome remains uncertain, market indicators strongly suggest a Trump victory. He emphasized that the market has often been a reliable predictor of elections, recalling how it accurately forecasted Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 despite contrary pundit opinions.
Druckenmiller pointed to rising bank stocks, cryptocurrencies and the performance of Trump’s social media company, DJT, as signs the market is increasingly confident in a Trump victory over the past 12 days.
He also suggested that industries likely to benefit from deregulation could outperform under another Trump administration. “I would have to guess Trump is the favorite to win the election,” he concluded.
How Trump’s Rising Odds Align With Rising Crypto Prices
Polymarket data currently gives Donald Trump a 62% chance of winning the 2024 election, while Kamala Harris sits at 38%. This is a notable shift from Oct. 3, when the odds between the two candidates were tied.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has surged by 10% since Oct.3, moving from around $60,900 to $67,000, with only a brief drop to $59,000 on Oct.11. This lends credibility to Druckenmiller’s argument that the market is pricing in a Trump win.
Is The ‘Trump Trade’ Back?
Bernstein analysts previously predicted Bitcoin could hit $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump wins, citing his vocal support for cryptocurrencies and his vision of making the U.S. a “crypto capital.” In contrast, a Harris victory could lead to more volatility, despite her recent pro-crypto stance.
As election day nears, the rising odds for Trump and corresponding movements in crypto and bank stocks reflect growing market belief in his return to the White House. However, it is too early to tell whether Trump’s election odds and risk assets will continue to move in lockstep and if they would continue surging after a hypothetical Trump win.
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